A report for Washington: I know many Democrats, and they all
seem highly pessimistic about 2004. They think that Karl Rove is a genius,
that Bush will coast to re-election because of the Iraq war, that Republicans
have enormous advantages in money and media support, that the country
is moving rightward, that the Democratic leadership is weak and dividedin
short, that we are headed for a landslide.
I dislike political prognostication and am generally not good at it.
(It seems to me that the important question is not who will win,
but what policies we should want to prevail.) Nevertheless, I cannot resist
observing that the future is completely unpredictable and that a Democrat
could be the one to win by a landslide in ’04. The economy will need
to improve quickly to get above the level that usually re-elects presidents
(3% annual growth). Surveys show very little support for the Bush economic
strategy if it is separated from his personal popularity. The stimulative
effects of the new budget are likely to be small, and the expected postwar
bounce has been modest. Iraq represents a genuine victory right now, which
no one should gainsaybut unfortunately for all of us, it could still
easily turn into a momentous disaster. Cutbacks at the state level are
going to remain a huge issue, and state leaders will have justifiable
reasons to blame Washington. If governors start accusing Bush of cutting
taxes at their expense, it could create a serious political problem for
him. (The $20 billion in aid to states that Congress just passed may inoculate
Bush against charges that he abandoned the states, so it very lucky for
him.) The Republicans are planning to use Sept. 11 politically, even choosing
New York City for their conventiona strategy that will backfire
if New Yorkers effectively protest the way that they have been mistreated
since 2001. (Or if, God forbid, we are attacked again.) The demographic
trends in states like Florida point the Democrats’ way, and they start
with a 2000 base that was bigger than Bush’s. The absence of serious third-party
competition from the left will help too. Even the media may be neutralized
if reporters shift, pack-like, from adulating Bush to criticizing him
once his popularity starts to slip for other reasons.
In short, this is a nonpartisan blog, but I wouldn’t bet a lot of money
on a Republican victory, even if I were a Republican.