Two years ago, shortly after the 2024 election, I wrote, “The Tide will Turn.” Now it has.
Napoleon is supposed to have said that morale is ten times more important than physical force in war. Similarly, the number of votes cast for a party and the seats that it wins are less important than the sense that people make of a major political event, such as a momentous election. I think that Americans will draw the conclusion that MAGA has failed, which will influence not only the policy agenda and candidates’ positioning for the 2028 election but also people’s everyday behavior in their communities and institutions.
If you want to predict the political conflict between Congress and the White House between now and 2028, you must consider Trump’s substantial advantages. He can veto bills. The Democrats would need significant defections from the rump group of right-wing Republicans to override him. Until a new budget or significant authorization bills have been enacted, ICE can continue massive raids (it is lavishly funded through FY 2029), and Trump can order offensive military actions in the Gulf and the Caribbean and tilt toward Russia against Ukraine.
In the likely scenario that Trump vetoes a Democratic budget that blocks his priorities, the government will shut down. That will be necessary but genuinely painful, especially if the shutdown persists for a year or more. While most of the government is closed, ICE and the Pentagon will be able to continue as before.
Officials can refuse to comply with subpoenas until Trump’s term ends. And Trump can pardon everyone in sight, perhaps including himself.
But the next two years will not be defined by these struggles. I suspect that Trump’s approval will continue to sink to levels that increasingly threaten Republicans, particularly the 19 Republican senators who did not have to run this year because their terms end in 2029. The Republican presidential primary campaign will begin soon, and it will be ugly.
Significant events will occur beyond anyone’s control. We could face a recession. China could invade Taiwan. AI agents could disrupt the Internet. Events of such magnitude will dominate the news, and Trump will address them without public support or trust. I would guess that his own morale will collapse. In any case, attention will turn to his would-be successors.
In our institutions and communities, many (not all) people took the 2024 election as a sign that the public had moved rightward. We were coming off a period in which a certain kind of identity-focused, left-of-center politics had been influential. A shorthand for that view could be “DEI,” as long as we don’t focus on the actual meanings of the words “diversity,” “equity,” and “inclusion” but instead envision policies and practices such as diversity trainings in workplaces and land-acknowledgments. These practices can be criticized from many angles, including from the left. The backlash was highly effective and would have been less so if it had come only from MAGA and the Trump Administration. Within companies, universities, media outlets, and law firms, there were plenty of people who wanted to turn against what was called “DEI.”
But under the froth of symbolic politics–both for and against “DEI”–strong currents have been making the country actually more diverse, equitable, and inclusive. It is no accident that three governors will be Black for the first time in American history, that the first openly gay man and also the first Muslim will serve in the Senate, or that the first Gen-Z woman–an Ethiopian immigrant–will serve in the House. People who are not straight white men have been accumulating power, wealth, networks, and sheer numbers.
Consider Georgia, where a slight majority of the population consists of people of color, but voters were still 64% white this year. Nevertheless, significant portions of the white vote went for the Democratic candidates, along with about 90% of Blacks and 62% of all others. The state’s three most powerful elected officials will now be one Black man, one Black woman, and one Jewish man.
In the environment I know best (my own university and our city and places like it), there have been at least four reactions to the 2024 election. Some people have been terrified into silence. (Our beloved student was abducted by ICE, explicitly for publishing an anodyne op-ed, and many others have been directly affected.) Some people have been seethingly angry and have expressed their views privately or publicly. A few have been partly aligned with the MAGA movement. And there have been some strange bedfellows of the Trump Administration, including people who are concerned about intellectual pluralism and those who support the policies of the State of Israel. (For myself, I favor pluralism but am not willing to cooperate with the Trump people–and I am critical of Israel.)
All these groups have generally shared a feeling that Trump is powerful and that he has some kind of momentum. As those assumptions are removed, it will be interesting to see how various people react. I would expect a lot more of the seething anger, and I hope that it will prompt wise changes rather than sheer venting. Everyone should read Bayard Rustin’s “From Protest to Politics” (1965).
Similar debates will play out nationally and will be prominent in the presidential primaries of both parties.
In The Fall of Robespierre (Oxford 2023) ,Colin Jones narrates the dramatic events of July 27, 1794 (9th of Thermidor in Year II, according to the revolutionary calendar), which began with Robespierre as virtually a dictator and ended with him on his way to the guillotine. The people who brought him down were ideologically diverse, and some were concerned that he was about to move to the right. Nevertheless, during the subsequent year, a shared narrative took hold, according to which Robespierre had presided over a leftwing “Terror,” and the Thermidorian Reaction had moved the country to the center. That story became a reality, and the Revolution was never leftwing again.
Yesterday’s election was nonviolent, and it only directly affected parts of the government. Donald Trump started the day as president and still president today. But it was momentous enough that it can be compared to Thermidor.
As in that case, the main question will be: what sense do the people make of it? There will be progressive, centrist, moderately conservative, and MAGA interpretations, embodied by various presidential candidates. I do not know which one will get the most support, and none will achieve consensus. But I am pretty confident that the MAGA interpretation will fail. Only a few people will continue to believe that Donald Trump has popular support and Republicans were defeated because he wasn’t on the ballot. A near-consensus that he has lost the people will spell the end of his era.
