the tide turns

Two years ago, shortly after the 2024 election, I wrote, “The Tide will Turn.” Now it has.

Napoleon is supposed to have said that morale is ten times more important than physical force in war. Similarly, the number of votes cast for a party and the seats that it wins are less important than the sense that people make of a major political event, such as a momentous election. I think that Americans will draw the conclusion that MAGA has failed, which will influence not only the policy agenda and candidates’ positioning for the 2028 election but also people’s everyday behavior in their communities and institutions.

If you want to predict the political conflict between Congress and the White House between now and 2028, you must consider Trump’s substantial advantages. He can veto bills. The Democrats would need significant defections from the rump group of right-wing Republicans to override him. Until a new budget or significant authorization bills have been enacted, ICE can continue massive raids (it is lavishly funded through FY 2029), and Trump can order offensive military actions in the Gulf and the Caribbean and tilt toward Russia against Ukraine.

In the likely scenario that Trump vetoes a Democratic budget that blocks his priorities, the government will shut down. That will be necessary but genuinely painful, especially if the shutdown persists for a year or more. While most of the government is closed, ICE and the Pentagon will be able to continue as before.

Officials can refuse to comply with subpoenas until Trump’s term ends. And Trump can pardon everyone in sight, perhaps including himself.

But the next two years will not be defined by these struggles. I suspect that Trump’s approval will continue to sink to levels that increasingly threaten Republicans, particularly the 19 Republican senators who did not have to run this year because their terms end in 2029. The Republican presidential primary campaign will begin soon, and it will be ugly.

Significant events will occur beyond anyone’s control. We could face a recession. China could invade Taiwan. AI agents could disrupt the Internet. Events of such magnitude will dominate the news, and Trump will address them without public support or trust. I would guess that his own morale will collapse. In any case, attention will turn to his would-be successors.

In our institutions and communities, many (not all) people took the 2024 election as a sign that the public had moved rightward. We were coming off a period in which a certain kind of identity-focused, left-of-center politics had been influential. A shorthand for that view could be “DEI,” as long as we don’t focus on the actual meanings of the words “diversity,” “equity,” and “inclusion” but instead envision policies and practices such as diversity trainings in workplaces and land-acknowledgments. These practices can be criticized from many angles, including from the left. The backlash was highly effective and would have been less so if it had come only from MAGA and the Trump Administration. Within companies, universities, media outlets, and law firms, there were plenty of people who wanted to turn against what was called “DEI.”

But under the froth of symbolic politics–both for and against “DEI”–strong currents have been making the country actually more diverse, equitable, and inclusive. It is no accident that three governors will be Black for the first time in American history, that the first openly gay man and also the first Muslim will serve in the Senate, or that the first Gen-Z woman–an Ethiopian immigrant–will serve in the House. People who are not straight white men have been accumulating power, wealth, networks, and sheer numbers.

Consider Georgia, where a slight majority of the population consists of people of color, but voters were still 64% white this year. Nevertheless, significant portions of the white vote went for the Democratic candidates, along with about 90% of Blacks and 62% of all others. The state’s three most powerful elected officials will now be one Black man, one Black woman, and one Jewish man.

In the environment I know best (my own university and our city and places like it), there have been at least four reactions to the 2024 election. Some people have been terrified into silence. (Our beloved student was abducted by ICE, explicitly for publishing an anodyne op-ed, and many others have been directly affected.) Some people have been seethingly angry and have expressed their views privately or publicly. A few have been partly aligned with the MAGA movement. And there have been some strange bedfellows of the Trump Administration, including people who are concerned about intellectual pluralism and those who support the policies of the State of Israel. (For myself, I favor pluralism but am not willing to cooperate with the Trump people–and I am critical of Israel.)

All these groups have generally shared a feeling that Trump is powerful and that he has some kind of momentum. As those assumptions are removed, it will be interesting to see how various people react. I would expect a lot more of the seething anger, and I hope that it will prompt wise changes rather than sheer venting. Everyone should read Bayard Rustin’s “From Protest to Politics” (1965).

Similar debates will play out nationally and will be prominent in the presidential primaries of both parties.

In The Fall of Robespierre (Oxford 2023) ,Colin Jones narrates the dramatic events of July 27, 1794 (9th of Thermidor in Year II, according to the revolutionary calendar), which began with Robespierre as virtually a dictator and ended with him on his way to the guillotine. The people who brought him down were ideologically diverse, and some were concerned that he was about to move to the right. Nevertheless, during the subsequent year, a shared narrative took hold, according to which Robespierre had presided over a leftwing “Terror,” and the Thermidorian Reaction had moved the country to the center. That story became a reality, and the Revolution was never leftwing again.

Yesterday’s election was nonviolent, and it only directly affected parts of the government. Donald Trump started the day as president and still president today. But it was momentous enough that it can be compared to Thermidor.

As in that case, the main question will be: what sense do the people make of it? There will be progressive, centrist, moderately conservative, and MAGA interpretations, embodied by various presidential candidates. I do not know which one will get the most support, and none will achieve consensus. But I am pretty confident that the MAGA interpretation will fail. Only a few people will continue to believe that Donald Trump has popular support and Republicans were defeated because he wasn’t on the ballot. A near-consensus that he has lost the people will spell the end of his era.

beautiful structures and the revival of public life

In 1983, David P. Billington began his book The Tower and the Bridge with words that could be written today:

While automation prospers, our roads, bridges, and urban civil works rot. Children control computers while adults weave between potholes. The higher that high technology sails the worse seem our earthbound services for water, transportation, and shelter. Yet civilization is civil works and insofar as these deteriorate so does society, our high technology notwithstanding. We forget that technology is as much structures as it is machines, and that these structures symbolize our common life as much as machines stand for our private freedoms. Technology is frequently equated only with machines, those objects that save labor, multiply power, and increase mobility. In reality, machines are only one half of technology, the dynamic half, and structures are the other, static, half — objects that create a water supply, permit transportation, and provide shelter.

This book is devoted to the idea that structures, the forgotten half of modem technology, provide a key to the revival of public life.

Billington offers several provocative distinctions. We have already seen how he distinguishes structures from machines. He also differentiates engineers from architects:

Structural designers give the form to objects that are of relatively large scale and of single use, and these designers see forms as the means of controlling the forces of nature to be resisted. Architectural designers, on the other hand, give form to objects that are of relatively small scale and of complex human use, and these designers see forms as the means of controlling the spaces to be used by people. The prototypical engineering form–the public bridge–requires no architect. The prototypical architectural form–the private house–requires no engineer.

And he distinguishes (structural) engineering from science–even from applied science. In his account, engineering depends on experience and judgment, not on the application of mathematical principles or laws. If I understand correctly, he wants us to realize that a suspension bridge is not a line with mathematical qualities that can be derived from physics. It is a whole bunch of stuff (including joints, hinges, and other components) that works in a particular location. Engineers use thought-experiments, physical models, and experience to draft their designs and often correct them during the construction.

Central to his argument is the claim that engineers have been compelled (since ca. 1790) to pursue, or even to maximize, “efficiency, economy, and elegance.” Whereas an architect might be hired to make an attractive version of something that we already know how to design, a structural engineer’s job is to solve a new problem (such as spanning a river) at minimal cost. But Billington insists that great engineers have been deeply aesthetic and that judgments of beauty have spurred more efficient and economical designs. A good example is the Salginatobel Bridge (1930) by Robert Maillart, which illustrates this post.

Before reading Billington, I would have cited cultural reasons for the turn away from ornamentation and other explicit forms of “style” in modernist architecture, and I would have observed the same turn in other arts, including painting and poetry. I would have said that a recognition of cultural variation–the idea that each time and place has its own style–convinced modernists that style was arbitrary and contingent and turned them toward minimalism and functionalism.  Walter Gropius wrote:

We have had enough and to spare of the arbitrary reproduction of historical styles … The modern building should derive its architectural significance solely from the vigour and consequence of its own organic proportions. It must be true to itself … A breach has been made with the past. … The morphology of dead styles has been destroyed; we are returning to honesty of thought and feeling.

For Billington, however, Gropius and other modernist architects were not the driving force. Structural engineers made beautiful things without ornamentation because their job was to maximize efficiency.

Engineers’ most prominent and influential creations have been public objects, like the Brooklyn Bridge and the Eiffel Tower. “Technological forms live also in the social world. Their forms are shaped by the patterns of politics and economics as well as by the laws of nature.” And successful structural engineers are good at navigating those social “patterns.”

Billington even wants to connect democracy to the modern advances of structural engineering:

These forms imply a democratic rather than an autocratic life. When structure and form are one, the result is a lightness, even a fragility, which closely parallels the essence of a free and open society. The workings of a democratic government are transparent, conducted in full public view, and although a democracy may be far from perfect, its form and its actual workings (its structure) are inseparable. Furthermore, the public must continually inspect its handiwork; constant maintenance and periodic renewal are essential to its exposed structure. Politicians do not have life tenure; they must be inspected, chastised and purified from time to time, and replaced. when found corrupt or inept. So it is with the works of structural art. They, too, are subject to the weathering and fatigue of open use. They remind us that our institutions belong to us and not to some elite. If we let them deteriorate, as we flagrantly have in our older cities and transportation networks, then that outward sign betokens an inner corruption of the common life in a free democratic society

I find this paragraph moving but not necessarily persuasive. When George Orwell wanted to distinguish radical and genuinely democratic socialism from Stalinism, he urged the left to stop bragging about Soviet “mechanical progress, tractors, the Dnieper dam, and the latest salmon-canning factory in Moscow.” For Orwell, excellent structural engineering did not equal democracy.

I’m not even sure that impressive structural engineering always depends on a state. Whether you approve or disapprove of it, Steinway Tower at 111 West 57th Street, NYC (2021) is an impressive engineering feat, extending the tradition of slender simplicity to house 84 stories of private, luxury condominiums.

I have some other questions for Billington. He suggests that structural engineering–in the form that he describes–is a modern development. I can accept that no one had explicitly defended its principles or distinguished engineering from architecture before Thomas Telford in 1812. But surely the practice of engineering is very old on all inhabited continents, and perhaps previous engineers (or master builders) saw themselves in similar ways without writing articles about it.

For Billington, the Eiffel Tower is a paradigm of structural engineering. I would ask: Why isn’t it architecture? Its sheer size can’t be the criterion, because architects have also designed very large objects. Perhaps the Eiffel Tower accomplishes its task with maximum efficiency, but its task is not utilitarian. Its job is to reach as high as possible. Maybe it is a gigantic sculpture?

Finally, Billington argues that the beautiful minimalist structures of the 1800s and 1900s resulted from the application of new technologies (plentiful iron; then steel and concrete) under constraints of efficiency and economy. But earlier I suggested a different origin for minimalism, one that can explain free verse and abstract expressionist paintings as well as glass-clad skyscrapers. Could it be that there have always been efficiency-maximizing engineers, but the public gained aesthetic appreciation for their work as a result of cultural changes after 1800? In that case, structural engineering is old, but we see it in new ways thanks to modernist artists.

Any provocative and compelling book will prompt critical questions, but Billington’s 1983 work endures as an argument for good structural engineering as a component of democratic public life.


See also: explaining the crisis in architecture (with the Gropius quote and other background); three great paintings in dialogue. I quote Orwell from The Road to Wigan Pier.

community engagement and concern for democratic values

I am interested in the Tocquevillian thesis that participating in voluntary groups enhances democratic and liberal values.

John Dewey was another major proponent of this view. Alan Ryan emphasizes Dewey’s belief that democracy, properly understood, “bubble[s] naturally upward from small-scale interactions and [is] not to be imposed from above.” (Ryan, John Dewey and the High Tide of American Liberalism, 1995, p.169).

The Democracy for All Project is a collaboration between the Charles F. Kettering Foundation and Gallup that collects representative survey data, most recently from 23,000 people surveyed from April 24 to June 10, 2026. The main report is entitled Frustration Rises, Commitment Endures.

I analyzed the raw data from Kettering/Gallup, looking for relationships between three measures of community engagement and several beliefs relevant to democracy.

The three measures of community engagement are:

  • “How often do you attend events in your community, such as festivals, town halls, arts performances, etc.”?
  • “How often do you usually attend church, synagogue, mosque, or temple?”
  • [Have you] “volunteered or actively participated in organizations or groups that are designed to improve conditions in your community”?

I chose these three because they offer a nice range of frequent forms of engagement.

I put them in regression models along with gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and partisanship. I will report the relationships between those variables and the following questions of interest.


1. [Are you concerned are about] “People being harmed by federal agents, military, or law enforcement during peaceful protests”?

    To make my assumptions explicit, I want people to say yes to this question. The model shows that people are more likely to agree if they are younger, more highly educated, not White, and if they volunteer in their communities or attend community events. But they are less likely to agree if they attend religious services frequently. Party identification and gender are unrelated to this outcome.

    Because I used a regression model, we can reject the explanation that local engagement is related to this democratic value because the people who are locally engaged are younger or more diverse or more highly educated. The model is supposed to detect relationships that hold once everything else is held constant. So a White, less educated person who volunteers is more likely to be concerned than one who is not.

    2. [Are you concerned are about] “People who are ineligible to vote casting ballots in U.S. elections”?

      Again, to disclose my own assumptions: I am against ineligible people voting, but I think this is very rare, and being very concerned about it is problematic. So I would like people to say no.

      In the model, concern is lower for those who are Democrats, female, younger, and more educated and who volunteer. It is higher for those who attend religious services. Attending local events is unrelated.

      3. “How concerned, if at all, are you that political leaders are blaming or targeting people from certain groups for problems they see in the country?“

      Here I would want to see agreement. Positive answers go with being a Democrat, female, younger, not White, and more educated. Support also rises with volunteering and attending events, but religious attendance is negatively correlated.

      [Are you concerned are about]“Political leaders pressuring election officials to change election outcomes”?

      For the record, I am concerned. So are people who are younger, female, more highly educated, prone to volunteer, frequent attendees at local events, and not regular attendees in religious services. Party identification is not significantly related to this question in the model, meaning that it can be explained away with the other variables.


      Overall, we see some support for the Tocquevillian thesis, except that church participation is negatively related to the values that I would espouse. (This is not always the case: see “active church membership may counteract problematic religious messages” and “church attendance, religious identity, and politics” [revisited].) For some of these questions, the relationship with party identification drops out once we measure the other factors. Volunteering has a consistent relationship with the values that I would espouse. Attending local events is less consistent.

      reply

      No, how could I believe in my poetry
      If even David Plante disbelieves in his?
      But I, too, can ask why I want to write,
      Expecting no success but enjoying
      A cool pool of words in which to slide down,
      Noises fading in the muffling depths, or
      Like rinsing mud from the side of a bucket,
      Leaving a hot pan to soak until the stain
      Softens, or trailing fingers through water
      To mark it momentarily with my mind.
      It is not what happens but how it feels
      To choose to cool a hot thought slowly down,
      To shape a portion of fluid into form.

      See also: signal (2015); a poem should (2013)

      what should be the mission of a great university?

      The recent Report of the Yale Committee on Trust in Higher Education says:

      Focus on the mission. In 2016, departing from its traditional emphasis on the creation and dissemination of knowledge, Yale expanded its mission statement to include “improving the world today,” educating “aspiring leaders worldwide,” and fostering “an ethical, interdependent, and diverse community.” These are all worthy goals. But they are not what makes a university a university. We recommend that Yale adopt a focused university-wide mission statement such as the one currently articulated in its own Faculty Handbook: “Yale University’s mission is to create, disseminate, and preserve knowledge through research and teaching.” This statement serves as the basis for the recommendations that follow in this report.

      When I led a discussion of this report with a large group of Tufts undergraduates through CEVIHE last week, some students expressed skepticism or cynicism about official mission statements. I agree. I usually view such texts as mere advertising copy–including the Tufts’ mission statement, which looks to me like outreach to prospective undergraduates.

      That said, I think the Yale faculty committee was right that any recommendations for an institution should flow from an authentic idea of that institution’s mission (whether it is stated on its website or not). Therefore, choosing a mission statement for a university is a worthy task.

      Yale’s current mission is very different from the one proposed by a faculty committee of the same university in 1828. They asked “What then is the appropriate object of a college?” Their answer: “the discipline and the furniture of the mind: expanding its powers, and storing it with knowledge.”

      In those days, Yale made no pretense of creating knowledge. It did not hire faculty to conduct research and scholarship. The teachers’ job was to transfer the knowledge that they had already acquired when they were students–particularly their knowledge of the ancient languages–to “furnish” young men’s minds.

      The mission that the recent Yale report endorses derives from Johns Hopkins’ founding goal, “to advance the arts and sciences.” In fact, the Yale report echoes the 1872 inaugural address of Hopkins’ first president, Daniel Coit Gilman, who said that universities may have many functions, but what makes them universities in the promotion of knowledge. His ideal, in turn, reflected Prussian influences.

      I think that knowledge is good, but it is certainly not all that Yale actually does. Consider that 30% of Yale’s revenues come from medical services, or that it budgets about $89 million for athletics, or that it allocates a portfolio of about $441 billion. Descriptively, one could say that Yale’s mission is to operate a hospital and an investment fund.

      But a mission statement should be aspirational, and Yale could strive to make all of its other functions serve its knowledge mission. That would be a choice, different from an ideal such as public service or developing students’ character.

      To choose a mission for any given university, it might be helpful to select a guiding analogy or model. What should the institution be like?

      1. A laboratory: This is a place where knowledge is created, preserved, and shared. People who work in a lab may disagree, and their disagreements can be valuable, but the goal is always to resolve disputes with evidence. Laboratory workers may learn and develop ethically, but scientific methods and instruments are supposed to be people-proof, so that they can generate knowledge irrespective of the scientists’ characteristics. The main outcome is the findings contained in publications.
      2. A debating society (or an op-ed page, or a high-quality talk show): This is a place where people exchange opinions. To be interesting and valuable, it must welcome–and even curate–diverse opinions. Whenever everyone seems to agree, it is time to invite someone who has a different “take.” The main outcome is the education of participants and listeners.
      3. An advanced prep school: a university like Yale (which, for full disclosure, I attended) could be analogized to a boarding school. It is a place where young people live together, develop skills and networks, and prepare for the next level. The main outcomes are the successes and contributions of the graduates.
      4. A not-for-profit, multi-purpose corporation. Yale could be seen as an entity that operates a major hospital, owns many of the prominent buildings of a mid-sized US city, serves food, attracts more tourists than any other site in Connecticut, runs a significant regional repertory theater, discovers medical advances, fields a football team, and does anything else that its trustees choose as long as the surplus revenue goes to endowment. The outcomes are diverse.
      5. A city: Cities do not have mission statements–nor should they, because their residents must be free to pursue their own goals. But the mission of a city government can be to serve its residents. In the same way, a university can offer a range of services to its members, who should be able to pursue various goals. The immediate outcomes are the well-being of students and other members of the community. (This suggestion came from a student during the CEVIHE discussion.)

      I worry that it is in bad faith to claim that a university’s mission is knowledge. If the pursuit of knowledge is supposed to determine everything a university does, then many of its actual functions should be spun off. And to interpret a $441 billion endowment as simply a means to the end of promoting knowledge is a convenient way to ignore its other outcomes. With more than $20 billion invested in private equity, Yale is the 31st largest private equity institutional investor in the world. That money has many other affects besides generating returns that can pay for laboratories and seminar rooms.

      Here is a different way of thinking about such issues. In a provocatively entitled article, “A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice” (1972), Cohen, March and Olsen posited that any “organization is a collection of choices looking for problems, issues and feelings looking for decision situations in which they might be aired, solutions looking for issues to which they might be the answer, and decision makers looking for work. … To understand processes within organizations, one can view a choice opportunity as a garbage can into which various kinds of problems and solutions are dumped by participants as they are generated.”

      The phrase “garbage can” sounds pejorative and isn’t really necessary. The core idea is that complex organizations develop so that they have multiple functions. If that describes a modern university, then debates about its mission statement are worthwhile but will never resolve the question. Universities are opportunities for people to pursue various agendas, and they will make competing claims about “the” mission. Perhaps the best universities are those in which this ongoing debate is handled relatively wisely.


      See also: the university between a club good and the commons; universities and newsrooms as laboratories or debating societies