Category Archives: elections

the youth vote on PBS NewsHour and elsewhere in the media

Below is a thoughtful and well-reported segment on the youth vote. Judy Woodruff has been covering youth issues with depth and consistency for several cycles and goes beneath the simple, horse-race question (“Will they vote for Obama or not?”) that most reporters ask. She also has a recent blog post with more information. I’m in this clip for a little while, but CIRCLE’s influence on the reporters’ fieldwork and agenda satisfies me much more than my own quotes. (That was also the case with a recent New York Times piece by Susan Saulny.)

Watch In Swing States, Elusive Youth Voters are Jaded, Undecided on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.

Here are some other recent articles that use our work:

the most redistribution since the Johnson Administration

In today’s Times, Eduardo Porter argues,

Future historians could well conclude that Mr. Obama led the biggest redistribution of wealth in decades.

The Affordable Care Act, which levies new taxes on the wealthy to expand access to health care for the near poor, seems on track to become the biggest increase in government redistribution since the Johnson administration. …

The Obama fiscal stimulus also did much to assist the most vulnerable Americans. It expanded the food stamp program and the earned-income tax credit. It extended unemployment insurance and sent $800 checks to poor and middle-class families. Over all, the Congressional Budget Office found that total government taxes and transfers reduced the nation’s income inequality by more than a quarter in 2009, the most in at least 30 years.

I think this story has been unaccountably overlooked by upper-middle-class liberals who are remote from welfare programs and over-influenced by symbolic issues, such as the “public option” (which was dropped from the health care bill). They use symbolic issues to measure the administration’s economic progressivism, when the graph above is a much better index. I was on a bus full of liberal academics when the Supreme Court upheld the Affordable Care Act last summer, and I was the only one who cheered–not because the decision would help Barack Obama, but because, as Porter notes, the top 1% of taxpayers will each pay $52,000 under the ACA to fund up to $2,000 for each family in the bottom 50%.

The graph is full of paradoxes and challenges. Note, for example, that even though Bill Clinton presided over growth and low unemployment, inequality (both before and after government taxes and transfers) grew rapidly during his eight years, echoing the trends first seen under Reagan. On the other hand, both pre-tax and post-tax inequality fell in the last years of GW Bush–perhaps just as a result of the money that rich people lost in the markets.

Of course, factors well beyond the control of a president affect inequality, but Porter cites evidence that the intentional policies of the Obama administration have helped cut inequality substantially.

I cite this graph because I think it displays important and overlooked trends. I do not mean to imply that redistribution is a good in itself, or that a reduction in the GINI inequality coefficient is necessarily a sign of progress. (Consider the fall between 2007 and 2009: bad years for everyone.) Government spending is only beneficial if the people who get the money benefit broadly, in terms of agency, freedom, and well-being as well as cash. But the argument about the Obama administration should begin with the premise that it has redistributed wealth–just as Romney charges, and left-liberals often deny.

game theory and the super PACs

Imagine that you lead a conservative super-PAC like American Crossroads, Restore Our Future, the Koch network, or the US Chamber of Commerce, which collectively planned to spend a $1 billion on this fall’s election. Of course, you must accommodate a bunch of separate and strong-willed donors, but I think these are the goals you will balance:

  1. Support the person you most want to see win, which is probably Mitt Romney, because you most want to see Barack Obama lose.
  2. Make the greatest marginal difference in the election by supporting candidates who are in a position to benefit from your dollars.
  3. Support candidates who will maximize your members’ after-tax profits. Whom to choose is debatable–it could even be the Democrats, if you believe they have a better macroeconomic policy–but leaders of conservative super-PACs presumably believe the answer is fiscally conservative Republicans.
  4. Support candidates who are likely to win, because if they win without your money, you have no pull with them. There’s a debate about how much access and influence money buys, but you have something else to worry about besides influence. If Democrats win despite your spending $1 billion for Republicans, you will send a clear message that you are weak and the Democrats can build a coalition without you.

Now, consider that the odds of Barack Obama’s winning in November are 90% according to Sam Wang, 77.6% according to Nate Silver, and 71.7% according to Intrade. Consider also that both the House and Senate are in play, with numerous unpredictable races.

No wonder Karl Rove is spending his money on behalf of Senate Republicans. The Center for Responsive Politics reports that conservative super-PACS were spending $10 million/week on behalf of Mitt Romney until a few weeks ago, but they are down to just $2.07 million in the last week.  CRP also calculates that Restore Our Future has spent $84 million on congressional races, American crossroads has spent $34 million, and Americans for prosperity has spent $31 million.  Meanwhile, an industry like financial services (including real estate and insurance) demonstrates how to distribute your cash if you are mainly concerned about your own after-tax profits plus mollifying the winner. They’ve given $221 million to Republicans, of which only $29 million had gone to Romney. They have also given $116 million to Democrats, including an ingratiating $12 million to Obama.

Conversely, if you are a liberal Democrat, I think your favorite outcomes, in descending order of priority, are: 1) win Congress, 2) win the presidency with no help from corporate donors, and 3) win the presidency with some corporate support.

the nucleus of our society (on Paul Ryan, liberals, and We the People)

The nucleus of our society, of our economy, it’s not government, it’s us, it’s We the People, it’s the individual, it’s the family, it’s those of us who live in Racine, in Janesville, all across this state.

— Rep. Paul Ryan at a Racine Tea Party Rally (transcribed from here)

I agree with Ryan that some forms of liberalism or progressivism are excessively state-centered. For instance, in a recent post, I argued that the individual reader drops out of Martha Nussbaum’s work; the government is her only agent of justice, her only guarantor of rights and capabilities. Nussbaum says (in effect) “there should be a government that protects rights”–without explaining how we are going to get such a thing. If she implies a responsibility for us (her readers), it’s limited to forming correct opinions about the rights that individuals should bear and then voting for the policies and politicians that will deliver those rights.

That’s an example from high theory, but when I served on two 2008 Obama campaign policy committees, I observed that liberal policymakers and policy wonks also have little appetite for public participation and voice.

Thus I agree with Ryan that the nucleus of any democratic society is its people, and the government is just one tool among many. But note how Ryan equates “We the People” with individuals and families. It’s reminiscent of Margaret Thatcher’s remark that “there is no such thing as Society.” Libertarian-leaning conservatives, just like state-centric liberals, see only two things in the world: governments and individuals. They disagree about the relationship between the two sectors, but both miss the role of collective civic or political action. Collaborative action is the role of “We the People.” In turn, the government ought to be one of our collaborative projects.

To be fair, Ryan has said (through his official Twitter account), “Limited, effective government should do what it does well, not suffocate the economy and crowd out civil society.” Possibly he holds a robust conception of civil society to complement his economic theory. But classical libertarians and the Supreme Court, in Citizens United, view civil society simply as a collection of private voluntary groups, defined by their independence from the state. The Court has defined corporations not as people–that’s a myth–but as associations, thereby eliding the difference between markets and civil society. I suspect Ryan shares the same view. The missing alternative is civil society as the domain in which We the People deliberate and solve public problems together, choosing when and whether to use the state as our tool. One of the most eloquent proponents of that view has been Barack Obama, at least in his pre-presidential writings and speeches.

basic principles related to voting

Hot debates are underway about our voting process. Should people be required to show specific forms of government-issued ID when they vote? Should they be able to register on Election Day? Must they register at all before voting? Must they go to the polls rather than vote by mail (as everyone does in Oregon)?

While this debate unfolds, it’s helpful to return to basic principles–but people disagree about those, as well.

At CIRCLE, we have occasionally polled young people about whether voting is a right, a duty/obligation, or a choice. In fact, we will release current national opinion data on that question shortly. Youth tend to divide their responses fairly evenly among those three options, but we might add a couple more:

1. Voting is an individual right, reflecting the basic moral principle of equal respect for all citizens and enshrined in classic Supreme Court decisions. Whether an individual actually votes ought to be his or her choice, but the government may not impose obstacles or costs unless those are required by some other compelling constitutional principle. Thus, for example, a photo ID law is impermissible if any eligible citizens will be blocked from participating, unless (contrary to fact) manifest evidence of fraud has been uncovered and photo IDs are essential tools to prevent that. More difficult questions involve convenience. Is it, for example, permissible for a government to restrict voting to a single day? (Many states allow early voting.)

2. Voting is a duty, an obligation of citizens to their republic. If this is correct, then we might consider requiring everyone to vote, as Australia and several other democracies do. On the other hand, since it is a moral obligation, we can perhaps require people to take extra steps in the public interest. For example, maybe citizens have an obligation to go to a public polling place on Election Day in order to demonstrate their civic commitment and to sustain a national ritual. And perhaps they have an obligation to take affirmative steps to register to vote. As long as such requirements are imposed after due deliberation, by legitimate representatives of the public, they are appropriate.

3. Voting is a way to make the government representative of the population. The politicians and ballot initiatives that win–and the policies that emerge from the government–ought to be the ones that all Americans would favor if they all voted. It doesn’t matter if less than 100% of citizens vote, as long as the outcome is not changed by lower turnout. Thus all voting groups should participate in proportion to their prevalence in the population. “Voting groups” may be demographic, geographical, or ideological; they are fundamentally defined by whether they would vote alike in a given election. By this standard, any election law is bad if it disproportionately affects a voting group, and good if it moves us closer to equitable representation. On the whole, that means that we should reduce inconvenience, because low-SES and young people are underrepresented in elections and are disproportionately likely to be deterred by barriers.

4. Voting is way of gaining power over other people, and as such, it is a vulnerable aspect of a political system that is always on the verge of corruption. Ballot-box-stuffing, voting the dead, voting early and often: these are characteristic and unacceptable features of our politics. Even if there is some truth to the other views listed above, preventing fraud is a compelling need that may necessitate imposing some hurdles.

5. Voting is a means to preserve other rights. Because the Constitution does not explicitly define or protect voting, yet several constitutional amendments forbid discrimination in voting, the Court was at first reluctant to declare voting a right on par with due process, speech (or property). In Yick Wo v. Hopkins, 118 U.S. 356 (1886), the Court held for the first time explicitly that voting was a fundamental right. “Though not regarded strictly as a natural right, but as a privilege merely conceded by society according to its will under certain conditions, nevertheless [the political franchise] is regarded as a fundamental political right, because preservative of all rights.” Note that this is an empirical claim (i.e., voting protects other rights), which we might dispute. Sometimes majorities use the franchise to undermine rights.

In the more famous Reynolds v Sims case, 377 U.S. 533 (1963), Chief Justice Warren said, “Undeniably, the Constitution of the United States protects the right of all qualified citizens to vote, in state as well as in federal, elections.” Many voting cases had been decided in the 80 years between these two cases, and Warren drew the lesson that voting rights were “individual and personal in nature.” Voting, he held, “‘touches a sensitive and important area of human rights,’ and ‘involves one of the basic civil rights of man.'” He quoted the Yick Wo decision to the effect that voting preserves other rights, but he emphasized voting as an individual right–option #1, above. I think that this remains the dominant view in constitutional law, whereas #3 is more influential in political science.

Empirical evidence is relevant to this debate. For example, #4 is weakened by a lack of evidence that the relevant kind of fraud (voting when you don’t have the right to) occurs at any significant rate. To some extent, political interests drive the debate and line up behind the policies that benefit their side. But there is at least a residue of genuine moral disagreement here.