Author Archives: Peter Levine

social class and tolerance for gays

I

was wondering whether people who are more educated and wealthier are more tolerant

of homosexuality. According to the General Social Survey, the answer is yes.

I guess this result is intuitive, but I always like to check.

Education and income each correlate with tolerance. I don’t have the time right

now to figure out whether the real driver is education (which may increase both

income and tolerance). There could be a third factor underlying the relationship,

such as urbanicity, age, religious denomination, or region. But just to dramatize

the basic situation, here is a graph that contrasts upper-middle-class people

who have college degrees (in blue) and lower-income people with no more than

high school (in red). The difference in attitudes toward gays is pretty stark.

hope for reform of gerrymandering

Many political scientists view partisan gerrymandering as the worst flaw in our political system today, worse than campaign finance abuses or poor and biased journalism. By drawing districts that are reliably Democratic or Republican, incumbent politicians have basically stripped voters of their choice. In approximately 385 congressional districts, a vote really doesn’t matter, because the lines have been drawn to preclude competition. Since challengers have virtually no chance, they tend to be weak and under-qualified. In these districts, parties and interest groups make little effort to mobilize voters, so turnout falls. Also, there is little discussion and debate within such districts, so people who live there don’t grasp the diversity of opinion in America. They regard the debate in Washington as mere mud-slinging and believe that every reasonable person agrees with the views that are prevalent in their own districts. Jim Gimpel, Celeste Lay, and Jason Schuknecht show, in Cultivating Democracy, that growing up in an uncompetitive district has a lasting negative effect on one’s civic engagement.

Until recently, I assumed that this problem was basically intractable. Incumbent politicians like things as they are. There is a public interest in competitive districts, but each citizen has relatively little to gain from reform, so it is difficult to mobilize people for this cause. Even if citizens do get mad about gerrymandering, their votes don’t count in most districts. Finally, the courts seem basically tolerant of gerrymandering if the intentions are partisan rather than racial.

But a recent conversation with the lawyer Tom Geogehegan made me more optimistic. It turns out that all the existing case law on gerrymandering pits one major political party against the other. The plaintiff says: You gerrymandered too much, or with unacceptable motives. The defendant says, No we didn’t. Neither party says: The current system for drawing districts violates the Constitution. If a public-interest group were to bring suit on broader constitutional grounds, it would be a novel and untested legal strategy–which means that there’s a chance it would succeed.

By the way, there are several possible remedies for the existing system. One option is a nonpartisan electoral commission, as in Iowa. As a result of Iowa’s reform, that small state has more competitive congressional districts than California and New York combined. One might worry that a “non-partisan” commission would ultimately by hijacked by stealth partisan appointees. An alternative is a computer algorithm that would randomly group citizens in compact districts. In drawing districts, it is necessary to weigh competing values (compactness, “naturalness” of communities, tradition, racial justice, and competitiveness). A computer cannot resolve this balancing problem neutrally. However, it can dramatically reduce the odds of seriously bad results. It can deliver what John Rawls called “pure procedural justice,” which is an important basis for legitimacy.

food for thought

Here is a strange statistical result. My colleagues and I have been teaching

high school students to investigate the causes of obesity in their communityas

a form of civic education. This fall, they are going to conduct and tape interviews

and create a radio show to publicize their results. To give them some data to

work from,

we surveyed all the students in the school’s health classes. The response rate

was poor, because students had to bring in parental permission slips before they could complete

the survey; and there was no penalty for failing to participate. Nevertheless, we

received enough surveys to draw tentative statistical conclusions. Here is the

one that surprises me. None of the 17 kids who said that they ate fast food

every day are overweight (according to their self-reported combination of height and weight). However, 43% of those who said they eat "hardly

any" fast food are considered clinically overweight.

What’s going on? Maybe a lot of kids are mistaken or dishonest, but it’s strange

that the relationship between fast food and body weight would be so linear and negative. The sample is too small for serious statistical analysis,

but we noticed that immigrant kids are more likely to eat fast food, yet less

likely to be overweight. So maybe immigrants eat good food at home but go out a lot

to McDonalds.

There are more possible explanations. For instance, the Washington Post’s “Kid’s Post” section reported last Wednesday that young people order less healthy food at restaurants like Outback Steakhouse and Red Lobster than they do at fast-food places. So maybe it’s good to go to McDonalds if it keeps you from ordering the “surf and turf” at a sit-down restaurant. But most of the kids we surveyed cannot afford regular visits to real restaurants.

In any case, the students’ research task is a lot harder because of this result.

The Bonanza! Group

People who work to improve the quality of public culture deserve our attention and thanks. For example, Adrienne Schatz is one of the co-founders of the “Bonanza!” group. She explains that Bonanza! is:

a network of Republican and Democrat friends who’ve put aside differences – at least in this realm – to create www.bonanzag.com, a very comprehensive, accessible, and truly nonpartisan election resource. We emphasize fact-checking, and have compiled dozens of easily navigable links to information on candidates, issues, registration, voters’ rights, poll monitoring volunteer opportunities, humor (if you haven’t seen the shenanigans at www.jibjab.com, you should …), etc.

the “global test”

Thomas Jefferson said it best: “When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to [do something drastic that affects the status of other nations,] a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them. … To prove it, let facts be submitted to a candid world.”

The founders of the United States asked for no one’s permission to declare our independence (although they needed help from France). Nevertheless, they considered themselves obliged to submit “facts” in support of their decision. If their allegations had been false, then they would have failed the “global test,” as the United States did in 2003 when we presented a false rationale for our invasion of Iraq.