I reported some time ago that

a publisher was talking to me about writing a very quick "issues

guide" for new voters, to be published in the fall. They actually

sent me a contract, which I decided to sign, and then they withdrew

the offer because of qualms about marketing. So now I’m considering

writing the same material and giving it away on a website. I think I

could persuade friends in the civic-engagement business to publicize

the site, and the resulting traffic would be enough to justify my labor.

I’d like the website to be quite interactive. In particular, I’d like

visitors to answer a bunch of questions and see an initial political

profile, which they could then modify in the light of the information

and perspectives presented on the website. The progamming for this quiz

would be a breeze for someone who know what she was doing. And it would

be a fairly cheap application to buy from a programmer. But I don’t

know what I’m doing, and I don’t have any money to pay for custom code.

I spent quite a bit of time this week finding and downloading "freeware"

that was almost right, but not exactly. In the process, I figured out

that a Java script would do the trick: no need for a database. I also

decided that I could learn how to write the script without pouring my

time into a sinkhole. So I bought a Java script manual and I’m busy

learning it. The last time I wrote code was about 1984; the language

was Basic, the computer was an Atari, and I was in high school. I wasn’t

especially into it (I was always a humanities kind of geek, not a techie);

but it had an appeal then and it has an appeal now.

Apparently, Gov. Howard Dean’s extraordinary fundraising success

is due to the Internet. In a broadcast email (read

full text here), Mike Weiksner, Chairman of e-thePeople,

writes, "It started out last December when a small cabal of online pundits

started posting supportive commentary about a relatively unknown candidate, Dr.

Howard Dean. These pundits posted their commentary on ‘blogs’." The next

step was Dean’s launch of a campaign website,

which described his positions and requested donations. "Then, www.meetup.com

got involved. Meetup.com hosts informal get-togethers for like-minded individuals,

and offered to help Dean to link supporters together." Finally, MoveOn

held its unofficial online Democratic "primary," which Dean won. Mainly

as a result of these events, he is first in fundraising, having raised $10.1 million

in 2003. He is a leading candidate instead of a protest vote.

Whenever

someone scores a political success by using an unconventional tactic, it is natural

to ask whether the change will last and whether it will benefit or harm the political

system overall. But it is important not to generalize hastily from the first candidate

who uses the new methods. For instance, an insurgent leftist candidate could invent

a tactic that is ultimately used most effectively by mainstream conservatives.

Furthermore, novel tactics may play out very differently once they’ve become routine.

Thus I think we should be cautious about predicting the effects of a new tactic

or technology on the political system over the long haul. But I’ll risk some guesses:

• Campaigns that successfully exploit peer-to-peer networks and advanced technology

  will have highly educated, youthful, reasonably affluent constituencies. I do

  not know the demographics of Dean supporters, but it stands to reason that young

  urban techies would gravitate to a politician who is socially liberal, fiscally

  conservative, anti-war, and conspicuously educated. ("Dr. Dean," the

  newspapers call him.) It wasn’t Al Sharpton who won the "blog primary."

• If

  these tactics work, they will benefit independent candidates who have little or

  no institutional base but who take unconventional positions—to the disadvantage

  of organized movements such as unions, churches, and parties. Dean is a quirky

  guy from a small and quirky state; his success contrasts starkly with the troubles

  now facing Rep. Dick Gephardt, an urban midwesterner who gradually built support

  in unions, his state and national party, and Congress. As a general matter, I

  think that average people (those without special skills or capital) desperately

  need such organized institutions to represent them. Therefore, it may not be a

  good thing if someone like Howard Dean can easily beat someone like Dick Gephardt

  by using new technologies. (And I say this as someone who would probably vote

  for Dean over Gephardt on the issues.)

• These tactics will work best in

  multi-person competitions with small numbers of voters. In such races, a candidate

  can stake out an unusual position, capture a small but energetic constituency,

  and come in first. In contrast, two-person races, especially at the national level,

  require mass mobilization. Blogs and peer-to-peer networks don’t have the necessary

  reach. Imagine that Dean won the Democratic nomination on the strength of the

  Internet. I believe he would be crushed by George Bush, who has a party and other

  organized political movements behind him. In fact, Bush has raised three times

  more than Dean this year, relying on just a few fundraisers. One could argue that

  blogs and peer-to-peer networks will grow until they are truly mass phenomena.

  I doubt it. Their growth will be limited by shortages of education, background

  knowledge, and motivation.

I just realized that for the last two weeks I have been absent-mindedly

dating my blog entries in May instead of June. The blog has been up-to-date, but

it has appeared to be month old. I suppose that the people who visited during

that period will think this blog is dead and won’t come back to read this message.

Maybe it’s time for me to use some automated software …

On a less embarrassing

note, we are thinking of creating an "arts blog" for Prince George’s

County. We would recruit several residents, each with a deep interest in a different

aspect of the county’s arts scene. We would give them training and ask them to

post at least weekly with news, reviews, and commentary. This would be an interesting

experiment in blogging within a geographical community, particularly one that’s

not particularly high-tech. It would also be a small contribution to the County’s

efforts to develop as an arts center. I think these efforts are promising. The

communities closest to Washington are affordable, near a major university, and

culturally diverse—perfect for artists. We have to be careful not to gentrify

the area in a way that displaces the current residents. But if arts development

is handled right, it could bring new resources into the community while preserving

its diversity.

The second day of Deliberative

Democracy Consortium meetings leaves me with little energy for composing a

blog. So I’ll reference two valuable items connected to the commons idea:

1. There is an effort underway to reverse the recent FCC decision to allow

   companies to own almost unlimited numbers of media outlets in each community.

   The bill to do this is S. 1046. See this web page from Common

   Cause for action steps.

2. Paul Resnick, a professor at the University

   of Michigan’s School of Information, is really one of the intellectual parents

   of our local work on the Prince George’s

   Information Commons. He and Harry Boyte wrote an important paper arguing that

   land-grant universities should revive their extension role for the 21st century

   by creating a network of community groups that would use the Internet for local

   civic purposes. We think of the Prince George’s project as a pilot for this idea.

   Paul has now put the original, inspirational White

   Paper on his website, which is full of other relevant material.