We study and promote young people’s participation because engagement is good for young people and the political system. But it also affects who wins. It turns out that the Gallup poll from last week that showed McCain ahead of Obama included youth as only 10 percent of the sample, when they represented 16-18 percent of voters in 2004. This is because Gallup includes only “likely voters” in its results. Young people are truly less likely to vote, but they are especially unlikely to make it past Gallup’s screen for “likely voters,” because they cannot say that they have voted in many previous elections.

This is partly an issue of measurement: Gallup probably needs to count more young voters. But it is also relevant to campaign strategy. If young people actually vote at the rate Gallup predicts, McCain is ahead. If they vote at a higher rate, he loses–unless he persuades them to vote for him. Game on.

If the next president were willing to hire one person–and also perhaps an advisory board–to help him to engage citizens, who should that be? Provide your answer in a survey, and the November Fifth Coalition will publicize the results. I think “civic engagement” requires changes in federal law and policy, not just good public relations. Therefore, in my opinion, the presidential adviser should be able to push for changes in election law, federal communications, HUD, No Child Left Behind, and many other legislation and programs.

“In mathematics during Hussein’s rule, students learned multiplication tables by calculating the casualty count of shooting down four planes with three US pilots in each plane.” (Tina Wang, Harvard Educational Review, January 1, 2005)

A 7th Century (AD) exercise for Armenian schoolboys: “In the times when Armenians were fighting the Persians, Zarwen Kamsarakan performed memorable feats of prowess. Attacking the Persian army, he killed half on the first attack…a quarter on the second…and an eleventh on the third. Only 280 Persians survived. How large was the Persian force before he laid them low?” [Peter Brown’s The Rise of Western Christendom, quoted in a review by Robin Lane Fox.]

It seems that the math was harder in 7th-century Armenia; and the casualty counts were higher.

(I’m collecting these examples of the remarkable persistence of educational approaches over millennia.)

Joe Garofoli in the San Francisco Chronicle and Jeff Brady on NPR’s All Things Considered both recently quoted me on whether funny advertisements and web-based games are smart ways for campaigns to mobilize young voters.

I am not aware of research or public data that would allow us to compare the effectiveness of a sarcastic or silly ad versus a serious and information-rich one. Nor have I seen evaluations of games that are designed to promote voting, whether the games are silly and parodic or challenging and educational. (The campaigns may have tested games and various broadcast messages, but they never share the data from such experiments.)

My hunch is that anyone who tries a very light approach is making a mistake. Remember that less than half of the youth population will vote. Heavily represented in that group are young people who are seriously concerned about issues, from their own economic prospects to the future of the planet. Voting is not much fun, but it is rewarding if one feels one can make a real difference by casting a ballot. Potential voters are likely to be people who believe they can make a difference, or at least are open to the argument that the election is important. This is true of all citizens, but young people are especially likely to say that they need more information and explanation before they can vote. Often, in focus groups and polls, they say that the main reason they may not vote is that they feel inadequately informed to make such a serious choice. Thus I suspect that an information-rich, explanatory ad or game could be very effective. But a jokey approach is likely to make young people feel that the election is unimportant (thus lowering turnout), or may offend them by patronizing them.

This doesn’t rule out some use of humor and amusement in various media. But one should always take the audience seriously.

… but someone has to hold up the balconies and lintels of Prague. One of these is 600 years old, one is a Communist, one is grotesque (in the original sense of the word), and several are magnificent Baroque specimens from 1648-1720.

(To view this as a slideshow–my preference–click this link.)