10. The Iranians will probably obtain nuclear weapons, but deterrence (Mutually Assured Destruction) will probably prevent them from using them.

9. It would be great to close down certain large federal programs, such as Agriculture and Commerce, but even to hint at such an idea would cost me the election.

8. In the Senate, I voted for many provisions that I disagreed with–and for some that were totally indefensible–because they were packaged into bills that I thought were worth passing. This will continue to happen in my administration.

7. The differences in the economic proposals of my campaign and my opponent’s represent, at the most, just a few percent of GDP.

6. If you put no money down on a house and then lost it because you couldn’t make the payments, you didn’t lose any investment. You’re just like a renter who had to miss rental payments or move because the landlord raised the rent. But I’m not going to equate renters with owners because home-ownership is sacred.

5. Osama bin Laden will probably die of natural causes. If we find him, it will not be attributable to anything I do as president.

4. Since the mean income for a small-business owner is almost $250,000 per year, lots of them are white-collar professionals and yuppies, and taxing them is a good way to reduce the deficit.

3. The following things just don’t work: criminal penalties for marijuana possession; abstinence education; handgun bans.

2. Israel is a foreign country with a powerful military and interests that sometimes diverge from ours; and its two leading political parties are deeply flawed.

1. I have no idea what’s going to happen in the financial markets over the next year.

(Baltimore) FiveThirtyEight says that there’s just over a 20% chance that the Democrats will have a filibuster-proof, 60-vote majority in the Senate. If that happens, it’s pretty much guaranteed that Barack Obama will be the next president and Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker. It’s an unlikely scenario, but an interesting one to think about.

If the Democrats have 60 Senators, I’d like to see the president and the congressional leadership gather privately, develop a major economic reform bill, and then jam it through Congress on the first week of the session. That’s not deliberative, but I’ve never been a zealot for deliberation. Our system has plenty of checks to prevent rapid change. At their best, these checks promote “the mild voice of reason” by requiring discussion before the government can act. At their worst, they frustrate popular change and make policies muddy and confused, so that no one can evaluate what the government is trying to do. A clear-cut, dramatic shift in policy might actually help to broaden the public discussion and make politics appear more tractable. In any event, I’d support dramatic reform if it was fair and wise. Some elements might include:

• Raise about $450 billion in extra annual revenue by taxing people who earn more than $250,000/year.
• Cut taxes for lower-income people, led by an increase in the Earned-Income Tax Credit.
• Tax carbon, per ton of oil, coal, and gas (for $230 billion in revenue).
• Provide federally financed health care for all (costs $650 billion), not only to help lower-income Americans, but also as a major economic stimulus. Automakers, municipalities, and other large employers would be able to shed huge costs for benefits if the feds took that responsibility.

None of these reforms would empower citizens politically or embody the November Fifth Coalition philosophy that “we [citizens] are all the change we need.” They are top-down, national policies. I guess when it comes down to it, I’d claim that there are crucial tasks–such as educating the next generation–that must be done by citizens and communities in partnership with the government. But there are other crucial tasks, such as stimulating the economy and making it more fair, that only Washington can lead.

(on the way to Baltimore) I spent the weekend in Seattle learning about youth media projects there. I flew back home (near Boston), and am now heading down to Baltimore for two purposes: to meet the Case Foundation’s grantees in their Make it Your Own competition (which we are evaluating) and to participate in a CIRCLE focus group of young Baltimore adults who have never attended college. The latter is part of a much more ambitious project to talk to young working class adults across America. If you ask them whether they engage in traditional forms of politics, such as voting, most say “no”–but we are looking for alternative forms of politics and social activism that do engage them.

Meanwhile, here’s a souvenir from Seattle. The young woman who speaks at the beginning of this excellent video was one of the high school students I met over the weekend. She is involved with Reel Grrls, a Seattle organization that teaches teenagers to make social and political media. At the same time that this video attacks the consolidation of corporate media, it also embodies an alternative.

We need to think about how programs like Reel Grrls can become much larger and more common. (Today they are tiny boutique programs for self-selected leaders in progressive communities.) Youth media production could be incorporated more widely into school curricula, or funded as part the national and community service programs, or supported by universities, public broadcasting stations, or municipal governments.

(posted in Seattle)

The Division of United States Studies at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the Taube Philanthropies invite you to attend the first in the Taube Discussion Series on American Values. Speakers:

• Donna Shalala, President, University of Miami, and former Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (keynote)
• Moses Boyd, Principal, Integrated Solutions Group of The Washington Group and former Wilson Center Public Policy Scholar
• Peter Levine, Director, The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement and Research, Tufts University

As the American economy seems to be in free fall and as Americans consider how much rein should be given to the capitalist ethic, what the role of the government should be, and what individual responsibility is all about, it is appropriate to ask, What is the meaning of “American democracy?” What are the core values that underlie the American society and polity? Have values such as freedom, individual initiative and self-reliance, freedom of inquiry and civil discourse changed? should they change?

Tuesday, October 14, 2008, 9:30-11:30 a.m. (Continental breakfast available at 9:00 a.m.)

6th floor Flom Auditorium, Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue N.W., Washington, DC Directions are available at http://www.wilsoncenter.org/directionsPlease allow extra time for security; a picture ID is required. This is a free public event, but RSVPs are required. Please respond with acceptances only.

I’m heading out to Seattle this evening for a conference at the University of Washington’s Center for Communication and Civic Engagement. The topic is how youth can use the new digital media to learn active citizenship. The Center has a separate site on that topic and some practical work underway that I’ll learn more about when I arrive out there. Several of the other participants are bloggers–at least Allison Fine, Howard Rheingold, and Eszter Hargittai. There is also a good project blog, Engaged Youth, to which we’ll all be contributing.