Monthly Archives: November 2004

the “ideas” we need most

There are now several standard views about how progressives should recover from the 2004 election. One approach is to develop “new ideas.” That phrase, however, can mean various things, from innovative policy proposals to grand rhetorical statements that might unify the standard laundry list of progressive policies. James Carville and Bob Shrum are seeking a progressive “narrative” to counter the dominant conservative story about America. That sounds like a good thing to me, but I don’t believe it will be credible unless progressive candidates can also explain exactly how they will implement their vision. Policy ideas are indispensable.

Let me suggest, however, that we don?t need proposals as much as models. A proposal is something that a professor, a think-tanker, a Member of Congress or a congressional staffer, or a columnist might invent on the way to work. It?s an ?idea? in the basic sense. Examples include auctioning the broadcast spectrum to pay for free online material, giving all high school graduates cash, or (from the other side of the aisle) privatizing Social Security. Such ideas can make a difference, although it?s relatively hard to think of progressive proposals that have actually come to pass and achieved their intended goals. I think it?s easier to implement libertarian proposals, because ideas like privatizing or tax-cutting don?t require new institutions or cultural changes. Much more than ideas are needed to create institutions and change cultures.

Indeed, all the great moments of American progressivism have occurred when national leaders have ?scaled up? concrete experiments that had first developed at the local or state level. In other words, they haven?t relied on proposals as much as real-life models. For instance, it?s not too much of an exaggeration to interpret the New Deal as the New York State welfare system writ large; and New York State had built its system by expanding settlement house programs that had been pioneered earlier by the likes of Mary Simkhovitch at Greenwich House on the Lower East Side. Simkhovitch and her colleagues had ideas, but they also had concrete experiences.

Greenwich House (like Hull-House in Chicago, or like a good charter school today) was a problem-solving institution embedded in a cultural and social context. It was much more complex than any idea that could be written on a chalkboard. It couldn?t be replicated automatically in other places. Any persuasive analysis of why it was successful would be a long story about many individuals and their overlapping and conflicting goals. But even if Greenwich House couldn?t be cloned and distributed to other communities, it did serve as an inspirational model, an opportunity to develop leaders and learn relatively general lessons, and a node in a politically powerful network. Whereas ideas cannot implement themselves, institutions can grow and spread.

Building experimental institutions is a much slower process than dreaming up new proposals. In the short-term, clever ideas would probably help progressives to win elections. But we don?t have ideas that can actually tackle our deepest problems, such as the lack of satisfactory jobs for high school graduates, our awful incarceration rate, global warming, or the “Red State”/”Blue State” cultural divide. If national policies are to address such problems, they must be built on concrete experiences and networks of citizens. That?s why I think that short-term electoral defeats?and victories?are much less important than most people believe. Long-term, patient, self-critical, participatory experimentation is the road to progressive revival.

The purpose of politics is to address problems, not to win elections. George W. Bush is likely to make some problems worse. Above all, he is likely to undermine further the fiscal condition of the federal government. But John Kerry had no plan or possible mandate to solve our deepest problems. So let’s keep our eyes on the real target and not allow ourselves to be distracted by what happened last Tuesday.

the youth vote: a final thought

I know I’m in danger of beating a dead horse here, but I have to make one more point about youth turnout. John Kerry would have lost the popular vote even if every single citizen between the ages of 18 and 29 had voted–a completely unreasonable expectation. Assume that all 40.7 million under-30s had participated, and they had voted in the same proportions that actual young voters did last week: i.e., 54% for Kerry vs. 44% for Bush. Then John Kerry would have received a boost of 1,927,000 votes, net. (There would have been roughly 10.4 million more votes for Kerry, but also approximately 8.47 million more for Bush.) In reality, the Democratic ticket lost the popular vote by 3,510,358. Therefore, even with 100% turnout among the 18-29s, Kerry would have lost the election by 1.58 million votes.

Moral: youth turnout wasn’t the problem for Democrats. They lost because Americans preferred the Republican ticket in ’04.

latest on the youth vote

We’ve had a wild week at CIRCLE. Many early news stories claimed that youth turnout was 17% (for under-30s) or 10% (for under-25s). Many reporters and pundits (especially on TV) concluded that just one in ten young people had participated. Academic experts were fed that number and asked to comment; they opined sagely about the fecklessness of youth. In fact, these statistics represent young people’s share of the electorate. Turnout–which means the percentage of young citizens who voted–was 52% for under 30s and 42.3% for under 25s. In other words, more than half of people under the age of 30 voted, reversing more than 12 years of decline and surpassing all reasonable expectations. Their share was unchanged from 2000 because all age groups voted at higher rates, although the change for young people was proportionately higher (the same percentage-point change on a smaller base).

We struggled hard to change the dominant news story, and began to succeed by the end of the week. Just for instance, I’m quoted in today’s Washington Post as part of a positive and accurate story. Meanwhile, we have been able to conduct more fine-grained analysis. According to a fact sheet that we released this morning (see pdf):

  • The turnout rate of 18-24s rose 5.8 percentage points to 42.3%, as 1.8 million more under-25s went to the polls than in 2000. (In comparison, turnout of 18-29s rose 9.3 points.)
  • Eight million under 30 voters were first-time voters. They represented 64% of all first-time voters.
  • Youth chose Kerry (54%-45% for under 30s; 56%-43% for under 25s)
  • Youth had distinctive opinions and attitudes, especially in contrast to people who are currently in their 30s. They were more likely to identify themselves as liberal and much more favorable toward gay marriage. However, their issue priorities and their opinions of certain issues (such as abortion and Iraq) mirrored those of the electorate as a whole. Details are in the fact sheet.
  • There are still people saying that Kerry lost because young people didn’t turn out for him. For instance, Bob Herbert speculates that the Democrats would have won if “those younger voters had actually voted. …” We are a nonpartisan organization, and our concern is youth participation, not helping Democrats. However, I would say this to the Dems: 1) Young people did turn out. 2) They chose Kerry by a fairly narrow margin, as everyone’s pre-election polling had predicted. After all, they are politically diverse. 3) All older groups preferred Bush. So blaming young people for failing to vote just won’t wash.

    the commons and economic equality

    To what extent would a strong defense of the “knowledge commons” or the “public domain” increase economic equality? Some libertarians are enthusiastic proponents of the commons, so there could be an interesting coalition of left-liberals plus libertarians for the public domain, if it turned out that free knowledge helps the poor. This could be a global coalition, since information that is free is free for everybody.

    Today’s population has a gigantic advantage over our predecessors. We are able to produce many times more real value per hour of work than ever before. The main reason is a set of discoveries and inventions bequeathed to us by human beings from the past. Since we did not achieve these advances ourselves, we ought to share their fruits. However, even though most of our wealth and income is a result of inherited knowledge, it is held by a small minority of the population. One percent of Americans own 40% of the nation’s wealth; and the world’s richest 200 individuals own $1 trillion worth of stuff, roughly the same as the poorest 500 million people put together (pdf).

    Why do some people benefit from accumulated knowledge so much more than others? I see three explanations, which are not mutually exclusive:

    1) To make money from knowledge, you must have it in your head. Thus education is crucial for wealth-generation in today’s knowledge economy. In order to increase economic equality, we need to improve the education of less advantaged people–paying attention not only to their schools, but to their whole environments. This is very difficult to do. Money is a necessary but not a sufficient condition.

    2) To make money from knowledge, you must own equipment or organizations that embody knowledge: factories, firms, computers. It doesn’t even matter what you know, if you are lucky enough to inherit a substantial share of a profitable firm. To the extent that this is true, there is nothing especially new about the “knowledge economy.” People still need real property that generates wealth for them–but now the best objects to own are computers and supply chains instead of cattle and acres of land.

    3) To make money from knowledge, you must have effective access to it. You must be able to walk into a library or museum or log onto the Internet, find answers to your questions, and create new inventions or artistic expressions based on what you’ve found. To the extent that this is true, we need a very robust “public domain” consisting of free information. In order to “incentivize” new creativity, we must allow people to monopolize their own inventions for limited periods, so that they can profit from what they have made. But as quickly as economic efficiency permits, their ideas should become public.

    If (3) is important, then the obstacles to equality include corporate efforts to extend copyright backwards, to patent business methods and software, and to block the use of legitimate public-domain works by shutting down networks for the sharing of files. Government secrecy is another problem, as is the patenting of government-financed research results. Still another problem is the poor condition and funding of libraries and museums. But there are also great opportunities, such as the Internet itself and open-source software.

    The most radical libertarian/egalitarian program would involve: relaxing legal controls on intellectual property; abolishing all ownership and control of the broadcast spectrum and allowing people to share it freely with an Internet-style wireless communications system (Yochai Benkler’s proposal); and relaxing or even abolishing professional monopolies. Instead of requiring people to attend medical school and hold licenses to practice medicine, we could create “distributed” systems for evaluating people who provided various forms and aspects of medical care.

    [PS: Those interested in the defense of the commons should check out at least these two sources: Commons Blog, edited by Rick Emrich, and David Bollier’s On the Commons.]

    the “People’s House”

    Until 1913, with the passage of the 17th Amendment, Senators were selected by state legislatures. Since there was widespread corruption and class bias in state governments, Senators tended to be millionaires or puppets of specific corporations. The House of Representatives, however, was directly elected and much more accountable. It was the “People’s House.”

    Today, the situation is almost precisely reversed. The Senate is imperfect because its “districts”–the states–vary enormously in size. Alaska has the same number of seats as California. However, Senate races are often competitive and unpredictable; Senators must pay attention to the voters or they can easily be defeated. In contrast, House districts are completely uncompetitive, thanks to the way state legislatures have drawn the maps. Indeed, according to the Center for Voting and Democracy:

    The House of Representatives has reached a breathtaking level of non-competitiveness. More than 95% of seats were won by margins of more than 10%–a record. Only four incumbents outside of Texas [where the districts were redrawn] didn’t win by at least 4%, and only three were defeated. The House has changed partisan control only once since 1954–and unless Republicans suffer major setbacks in the 2006 midterm election, it almost certainly won’t change hands anytime soon.

    In short, the House election was over many months ago, as soon as the state legislatures finished selecting who would serve. How depressing that we should have less direct democracy in the House than 100 years ago. It’s time for a reform as bold as the 17th Amendment.