{"id":19369,"date":"2017-12-13T14:14:50","date_gmt":"2017-12-13T19:14:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/?p=19369"},"modified":"2017-12-13T14:14:50","modified_gmt":"2017-12-13T19:14:50","slug":"youth-in-the-alabama-senate-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/?p=19369","title":{"rendered":"youth in the Alabama Senate race"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>CIRCLE <a href=\"https:\/\/civicyouth.org\/23-of-youth-vote-in-alabama-propel-doug-jones-to-victory\/\">estimates<\/a> that 23% of young Alabamians voted in yesterday&#8217;s special election. Just for a rough turnout comparison, 21.5% of youth in the United States as a whole <a href=\"https:\/\/civicyouth.org\/21-3-youth-turnout-preliminary-estimate-comparable-to-recent-midterm-years\/\">voted<\/a> in the 2014 election. We would normally expect turnout to be lower in a special election with only one person on the ballot than in a national Congressional election, and also lower among Alabama youth than youth across the country because just 40% of young Alabamians have any college experience (and college is correlated with voting). Thus I would call the turnout pretty good compared to expectations.<\/p>\n<p>According to the Exit Polls, youth supported Doug\u00a0Jones over Roy Moore by 60% to 38%. The older vote was dramatically different, with Moore winning people over 45 pretty easily. CIRCLE suggests two interesting contributing factors. First, young Alabamians are more diverse. &#8220;More than a third of the state\u2019s young people are Black, and &#8230; Black voters of all ages went overwhelmingly for Jones (96%) in yesterday\u2019s race.&#8221; Second, Moore may not have &#8220;garner[ed] overwhelming support even among youth who identify as conservative or Republican.&#8221; CIRCLE has previously found that &#8220;some Republican-leaning youth break with older voters on same-sex marriage and other social issues that were central to Moore\u2019s campaign in Alabama. In addition,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/civicyouth.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/Trump-and-Youth-Vote.pdf\">CIRCLE analysis of the Pew Research Center\u2019s Political Typology dataset<\/a>\u00a0finds that only 5% of young people who lean toward or belong to the Republican party are \u201cSteadfast Conservatives\u201d (compared to 25% of Republicans or Republican-leaners aged 30+) while 31% are \u201cYoung Outsiders\u201d who may feel less committed to the party and its candidates.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/civicyouth.org\/23-of-youth-vote-in-alabama-propel-doug-jones-to-victory\/\">More detail<\/a> is on the CIRCLE website.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CIRCLE estimates that 23% of young Alabamians voted in yesterday&#8217;s special election. Just for a rough turnout comparison, 21.5% of youth in the United States as a whole voted in the 2014 election. We would normally expect turnout to be lower in a special election with only one person on the ballot than in a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19369","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2018-election","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19369","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19369"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19369\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19382,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19369\/revisions\/19382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19369"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19369"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19369"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}