{"id":17484,"date":"2016-10-05T10:21:17","date_gmt":"2016-10-05T14:21:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/?p=17484"},"modified":"2016-10-05T10:21:17","modified_gmt":"2016-10-05T14:21:17","slug":"its-1989-all-over-again-hrc-and-bush-41","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/?p=17484","title":{"rendered":"it’s 1989 all over again: HRC and Bush 41"},"content":{"rendered":"

If Hillary Clinton is elected in November, the\u00a0parallels with the start of the George H.W. Bush Administration will be striking. That does not<\/em> imply that Clinton’ presidency must\u00a0follow the trajectory of his: history rarely echoes, and her luck as well as her personal qualities may prove different. But\u00a0she will begin where he did.<\/p>\n

Bush the Elder\u00a0ran for president in 1980 as the favorite of his party. He had the longest\u00a0resume, stood near\u00a0the ideological center of the traditional GOP, had close ties with powerful leaders\u00a0in business, government, and foreign capitals, and was the son of a US Senator. He lost to the insurgent Ronald Reagan, who represented “change.” Bush\u00a0served loyally in the Reagan Administration and then ran to succeed his boss and uphold a legacy that he had not originally endorsed.<\/p>\n

Hillary Rodham Clinton ran in 2008 as the favorite of her party, with a long resume, relationships comparable to\u00a0Bush Senior’s, and the support of party regulars. She was the spouse of a former president and had helped him to define the ideological center of the New Democrats. She was defeated by an insurgent who represented “change,” but she then\u00a0served loyally in his administration and is running to preserve his legacy.<\/p>\n

Both candidates were distrusted by the ideological base of their party. Bush\u00a041 had to beat Pat Buchanan in 1988. Buchanan turned out to represent a powerful strand in the future of the GOP. Bush promised “No new taxes” to satisfy his base. Clinton had to beat Bernie Sanders in 2016. The demographics of Sanders’\u00a0support suggest that he\u00a0represents a major strand in the future of\u00a0the Democratic Party. Clinton has made\u00a0policy concessions<\/a> to satisfy Sanders voters (and Black Lives Matter).<\/p>\n

Mike Dukakis is a fine public servant and an\u00a0exemplary person, but he ran a notably weak campaign against George H.W. Bush in 1988. Donald Trump cannot hold a candle to Gov. Dukakis as a human being, but Trump\u00a0is also running a poor campaign.<\/p>\n

Although both George H.W. Bush and HRC are capable, detail-oriented policymakers who are said to be impressive in private, neither has the kind of eloquence that leaves a mark on the language or memory. Bush Senior is known for “Read my lips” and “Message: I care.” I don’t think Hillary Clinton is yet associated with any particular phrases.<\/p>\n

Bush 41 faced a Democratic Congress with formidable opposition tacticians, such as Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell. HRC is likely to face at least a Republican House in 2017, and probably a Republican Senate after 2018. In the face of congressional opposition, Bush achieved no changes in domestic policy other than a grand compromise on the budget that lost him the support of the Republican base. Clinton will have to negotiate budgets with the Republican House. Bush left\u00a0a much bigger mark on foreign policy. Clinton has also demonstrated that she is willing to use executive power overseas. Both confront a war in and around Iraq<\/p>\n

When Bush the Elder\u00a0took office, an economic recovery was 7 years and three months old and had only 18 months left to run. When our next president\u00a0takes the oath of office, the current recovery will be seven-and-a half\u00a0years old and probably can’t last much longer. Both also inherit a party apparatus that is pretty tired after almost a decade in control of the\u00a0executive branch.<\/p>\n

Again, none of this implies or predicts that Clinton (assuming that she is elected) will follow the path of Bush Senior. New realities will confront her, and she has some freedom to act differently. But the parallels are\u00a0a bit sobering and deserve some thought.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If Hillary Clinton is elected in November, the\u00a0parallels with the start of the George H.W. Bush Administration will be striking. That does not imply that Clinton’ presidency must\u00a0follow the trajectory of his: history rarely echoes, and her luck as well as her personal qualities may prove different. But\u00a0she will begin where he did. Bush the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17484"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17484\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17488,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17484\/revisions\/17488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}