{"id":17296,"date":"2016-08-25T18:07:23","date_gmt":"2016-08-25T22:07:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/?p=17296"},"modified":"2016-08-25T18:07:23","modified_gmt":"2016-08-25T22:07:23","slug":"the-signal-in-this-election-versus-the-noise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/?p=17296","title":{"rendered":"the signal in this election versus the noise"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Here is a graph of the presidential polls from this election so far. Most people choose narrow\u00a0ranges for the y-axis in graphs like this, to draw attention to the shifts. I show the full 0%-100% range, to display how the whole American public has\u00a0split. I also choose the stronger option for &#8220;smoothing,&#8221; so that each day&#8217;s measure is an average of several days on either side. The result is a highly stable advantage for Hillary Clinton all the way along.<br \/>\n<script src=\"http:\/\/elections.huffingtonpost.com\/pollster\/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton\/embed.js#!minpct=0&#038;maxpct=100&#038;mindate=2014-01-01&#038;maxdate=2016-08-25&#038;smoothing=more&#038;showpoints=yes&#038;showsplines=yes&#038;hiddenpollsters=&#038;hiddensubpops=A - D,A - R,A - i,RV - D,RV - R,RV - i,LV - D,LV - R,LV - i&#038;partisanship=S,P,N&#038;parties=D,R,I,N&#038;selected=clinton,trump&#038;fudge=1&#038;except_questions_with=johnson\"><\/script><br \/>\nIt doesn&#8217;t really seem to have made that much difference what Trump has said, or what has been reported about Clinton&#8217;s emails and her Foundation, or how she has spent her $319 million in TV ads. It looks as if most people had their minds made up as soon as it was clear who the nominees would be.<\/p>\n<p>The trend looked similar in\u00a02012, except that it was always much closer that year.<br \/>\n<script src=\"http:\/\/elections.huffingtonpost.com\/pollster\/2012-general-election-romney-vs-obama\/embed.js#!minpct=0&#038;maxpct=100&#038;mindate=2012-01-01&#038;maxdate=2016-08-25&#038;smoothing=more&#038;showpoints=yes&#038;showsplines=yes&#038;hiddenpollsters=&#038;hiddensubpops=&#038;partisanship=S,P,N&#038;parties=D,R,I,N&#038;selected=obama,romney&#038;fudge=1.2\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;d say that partisan identification outweighs almost everything, except that Trump is underperforming, for a GOP nominee, by a few points.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here is a graph of the presidential polls from this election so far. Most people choose narrow\u00a0ranges for the y-axis in graphs like this, to draw attention to the shifts. I show the full 0%-100% range, to display how the whole American public has\u00a0split. I also choose the stronger option for &#8220;smoothing,&#8221; so that each [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-2016-election"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17296","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17296"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17296\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17301,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17296\/revisions\/17301"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17296"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17296"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/peterlevine.ws\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17296"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}